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川普成调查对象,政治命运或将面临转折点

川普5月9日开除联邦调查局(FBI)局长柯米时,自己并不是FBI的调查对象,但6月7日柯米到国会作证后,势必使他成为特别检察官穆勒率领的FBI等司法人员调查对象。这个巨大转变,可能使川普像尼克森因水门事件被调查一样,面临政治命运的转捩点。

  看待川普炒掉柯米、穆勒被任命为特别检察官、柯米赴国会作证等连串事件,大致有几个关键点:一,川普成为被调查对象;二,川普被调查的罪状;三,一旦总统被司法调查,命运就难卜;第四,真相出来后,川普可能面对的命运。

  第一,5月9日川普炒柯米之前,当时FBI调查对象是川普竞选团队成员,包括前竞选总干事马纳福、前国家安全顾问佛林等与俄国的关系,现任司法部长塞辛斯可能也涉案等。但6月8日柯米到参院情报委员会作证后,情况可能有改变。民主党联邦参议员范士丹和多数媒体都力主调查川普妨碍司法;穆勒调查范围是否包括川普,未见公开证实。柯米证词虽未直接指明川普妨碍司法,或串谋俄国干预大选,但他也说,已将和川普谈话备忘录交给特别检察官穆勒。依正常程序,穆勒必须展开调查,澄清真相。

  水门事件1972年6月爆发初期,表面上也与尼克森没有关系,但FBI调查后,火终于烧到他身上,最终导致他面临国会弹劾,不得不于1974年8月辞职。川普的处境正面临重大转变,可能成为他命运的转折点。

  第二,川普被调查的核心焦点,是干预联调局调查佛林,涉嫌妨碍司法。听证中,柯米说,今年2月14日,川普在白宫与他见面,要求他放过对佛林的通俄案调查;川普当时说"希望"(hope)柯米放过佛林。川普私人律师辩称,这不构成妨碍司法,因为川普没有"命令"(order)柯米放过佛林。但柯米听证中表示,他认为川普所说的"希望",在当时情况下,等于是上司给下属"指令"(direction)。

  除了佛林事件,川普炒柯米也可能涉及妨碍司法。川普与柯米谈佛林之前,先将副总统潘斯和司法部长塞辛斯遣走,由他单独在办公室面对柯米,然后对柯米提出要求,要他放过佛林。为什么川普要单独对柯米说话?显然川普或许知道,这样做属违法。更重要的,柯米没有答应川普要求,他要保持FBI独立,继续调查佛林,导致川普开除柯米。

  后面就看参院情报委员会或特别检察官如何认定事实和适用法律。川普炒柯米的原因如被认定是想阻止FBI调查佛林,就构成妨碍司法罪。现任总统虽享有刑事豁免权,不会被司法起诉,但可能招致国会弹劾。

  第三,调查川普的司法程序一旦开始,就会查到水落石出,水门事件就是如此。尼克森为了掩饰真相,1973年10月下令炒掉负责调查的特别检察官考克斯(Archibald

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